Executive Summary: Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik’s recent visits to India and Mongolia highlight Minsk’s growing ambitions to court alternative economic partners to Russia and the West. These efforts reflect a non-ideological basis for Belarus’s foreign policy, as pragmatic economic considerations almost always trump ideological... MORE

Executive Summary:  Kazakh and Italian officials met in March to underscore their healthy bilateral relations and discuss increasing economic and trade cooperation. Kazakhstan and Italy’s strategic economic partnership gives the countries a foothold to deepen their engagement with the European Union and Central Asia, especially... MORE

Executive Summary: Berlin and Astana have been working to increase oil exports from Kazakhstan since the end of 2022 after Western sanctions forced Germany to explore alternatives to Russian energy sources. Increasing Kazakh oil exports seems unlikely as shipments would pass through Russia’s Druzhba pipeline... MORE

Executive Summary: Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan are facing severe water shortages, which Kabul plans to counter with the Qosh Tepa canal, which will likely exacerbate water issues in Central Asia. Uzbekistan’s and Turkmenistan’s economies largely rely on agriculture, and the canal project would detrimentally affect... MORE

Executive Summary: Following the recent presidential elections, Azerbaijan turned its focus to the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and its role in connecting the Turkic world, indicating that Baku does not intend to align with the West or Russia. The expansion of defense cooperation within... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow seeks to boost its struggling economy through increased development of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) as a real competitor to the Suez Canal and the Bosphorus Strait. Moscow wants the INSTC to open pathways to new markets that circumvent Western monitoring... MORE

Executive Summary Central Asian governments have increased security at Israeli and Jewish sites and expressed neutrality on the Gaza conflict, but unrest could inspire extremist attacks. Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) propaganda has called for attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in Uzbekistan, sharing... MORE

Executive Summary:  Astana plans to pursue a “multi-vector” diplomatic strategy for 2024, engaging more with the CSTO, NATO, and other international organizations and conducting joint military exercises with diverse partners. Kazakhstan’s involvement in CSTO peacekeeping missions highlights its regional security commitments and ongoing reliance on... MORE

Executive Summary: Recent developments in Mongolia challenge Moscow’s long-standing assumption that it has sufficient leverage to keep Ulaanbaatar in line with Russian interests. Two of these developments—Russian flight there and interest in Mongolia among Russia’s Buddhist peoples—are probably long-term, disturbing many Russians. The third—Mongolia’s restriction... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s rhetoric toward Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, has become increasingly hostile since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.  The rhetoric from Russia includes threats of invasion and annexation, reminiscent of the language used toward Ukraine before... MORE